And why do political systems change

Melbourne, Australia, August 26,

And why do political systems change

Posted on April 5, by energyskeptic [ Yet another wise, thoughtful, and wide-ranging essay from my favorite writer of the many facets of a civilization about to decline as it is starved of the fossil fuels that feed it. Although the topics are quite varied, Heinberg weaves them into a cloth that is more than the sum of the parts in explaining how the future may unfold.

Juggling Live Hand Grenades. Here are a few useful recent contributions to the global sustainability conversation, with relevant comments interspersed.

Toward the end of this essay I offer some general thoughts about converging challenges to the civilizational system. Once upon a time it was assumed that as world oil supplies were depleted and burned, prices would simply march upward until they either crashed the economy or incentivized both substitute fuels and changes to systems that use petroleum mainly transportation.

The authors And why do political systems change, in short, that before oil production begins to decline, high prices incentivize new production without affecting demand too much, while low prices incentivize rising demand without reducing production too much.

And why do political systems change

However, because oil is a key factor of economic production, a depleting non-renewable resource, and is hard to replace, conventional economic theory does a lousy job describing the declining phase of extraction. It turns out that once depletion has proceeded to the point where extraction rates start to decline, the relationship between oil prices and the economy shifts significantly.

The system becomes self-destabilizing, the economy stagnates or contracts, the oil industry invests less in future production capacity, and oil production rates begin to fall faster and faster.

Our analysis and empirical evidence are consistent with oil being a fundamental quantity in economic production. Our analysis indicates that once the contraction period for oil extraction begins, price dynamics will accelerate the decline in extraction rates: We believe that the contraction period in oil extraction has begun and that policy makers should be making contingency plans.

As I was reading this paper, the following thoughts crossed my mind. Rather, its shortcoming was twofold: The Hirsch Report of showed that that change of trajectory would need to start at least a decade before the peak in order to achieve the goal of averting collapse.

As it turned out, the peak oil movement did provide society with a decade of warning, but there was no trajectory change on the part of policy makers. Instead, many pundits clouded the issue by spending that crucial decade deriding the peak oil argument because of insufficient predictive accuracy on the part of some of its proponents.

The message itself should be no surprise. In any case, with prices not high enough to generate profits, the industry has no choice but to cut back on investments, and that means production will soon start to lag.

Nasser said that the oil market was getting closer to rebalancing supply and demand, but the short-term market still points to a surplus as U. Nasser went on to point out that conventional oil discoveries have more than halved during the past four years.

The Saudis have never promoted the notion of peak oil. No doubt he would argue that resources are plentiful; the problem lies with prices and investment levels.

Never mention depletion; that would give away the game. BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 2: Unfortunately EROI calculations tend to be slippery because they depend upon system boundaries. Draw a close boundary around an energy production system and you are likely to arrive at a higher EROI calculation; draw a wide boundary, and the EROI ratio will be lower.

None of the plans reviewed here including those by Mark Jacobson and co-authors passes muster.When asked about major threats to their country, Europeans are more likely than Americans to cite global climate change, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

Just 56 percent of. “they think the idea of it being man made is a hoax due to the lack of actual evidence”.

And why do political systems change

Correction, “they” (deniers) are wilfully deaf to the evidence because their know (if only unconsciously) that the implications would mean radical changes to the way of life. §1. Let’s start with what this essay will do, and what it will not. We are both convinced of, and this essay will take more or less for granted, that the political traditions of libertarianism and feminism are both in the main correct, insightful, and of the first importance in any struggle to build a just, free, and compassionate society.

Democracy was the most successful political idea of the 20th century. Why has it run into trouble, and what can be done to revive it? By Catherine Adenle There are more than 12 reasons why employees resist change in the workplace.

However, for the purpose of this post, we will highlight only 12 because they are the most important reasons why employees resist change at all costs. Then, in the s, one of us helped conduct a study showing that training programs did not facilitate organizational change: Companies that .

Libertarian Feminism: Can This Marriage Be Saved?: Roderick Long and Charles Johnson ()